Prognostic Model Developed, Validated Externally for Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality

WEDNESDAY, Jan. 14, 2026 (HealthDay News) — In a study published online Jan. 13 in the Annals of Internal Medicine, a prognostic model for prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) was developed and externally validated.

Patrick Lewicki, M.D., from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, and colleagues developed and externally validated a novel prognostic model for risk for PCSM after a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test and compared it to existing tools. Prognostic model development was conducted in the prostate cancer screening group of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial (33,339 male patients aged 55 to 74 years) and external validation was performed in a Veterans Affairs population undergoing PSA testing (174,787 patients). The model”s predicted outcome was PCSM at a specified time point.

The researchers found that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 29.5 years from screening was 0.666 versus 0.643 for a previously validated prostate biopsy risk model (Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group [PBCG]) in the model development cohort. The AUC at 20 years from screening was 0.776 and 0.749 for the PLCO and PBCG models, respectively, in the external validation cohort.

“We designed and externally validated a prediction model for risk stratification of patients at the point of PSA screening,” the authors write. “Future work will determine the clinical impact of integrating this tool within primary care workflows.”

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