Continued increases in deaths and DALYs attributable to elevated BMI, physical inactivity expected from 2022 to 2050
FRIDAY, Jan. 30, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Elevated body mass index (BMI) and physical inactivity are metabolic drivers of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease (HT-CKD), with elevated BMI exerting a greater impact, according to a study published online Jan. 11 in Frontiers in Nutrition.
Xiaohua Lin, from The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University in Fuzhou, China, and colleagues quantified the global burden of HT-CKD attributable to elevated BMI or low physical activity from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends to 2050 based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data.
The researchers found that HT-CKD attributable to elevated BMI caused 179,788 deaths and 4.26 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) globally in 2021, representing increases of 392.9 and 322.2 percent, respectively, since 1990. A total of 4,479 deaths and 77,879 DALYs were caused by HT-CKD attributable to low physical activity, with similar substantial growth. For both risk factors, age-standardized rates (ASRs) for deaths and DALYs showed significant global upward trends from 1990 to 2021. With age, the overall disease burden increased, peaking in those aged 80 years and older and reaching maximal ASRs in those aged 95 years and older for both metrics and risk factors. Continued increases in deaths and DALYs attributable to both risk factors were seen from 2022 to 2050 in the autoregressive integrated moving average and the exponential smoothing models, especially for elevated BMI.
“These findings underscore elevated BMI and low physical activity as major, modifiable metabolic drivers of the growing HT-CKD pandemic, necessitating urgent and targeted public health interventions worldwide,” the authors write.
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