ACS: Aggregate Surgeon Supply Projected to Decline to 2038

THURSDAY, Oct. 1, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Aggregate surgeon supply is projected to decline to 2038, resulting in a national workforce adequacy of 83.4 percent, according to a study presented at the annual meeting of the American College of Surgeons, held from Sept. 26 to 29 in Washington, D.C.

Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, from the Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine in Cleveland, and colleagues performed a national workforce projection study using the Health Workforce Simulation Model to examine workforce supply, demand, and adequacy across major surgical specialties. Physician supply and demand were analyzed from 2023 to 2038 across 10 specialties.

The researchers found that aggregate surgeon supply is projected to decline 4.2 percent from 2023 to 2038 (from 146,580 to 140,360 full-time equivalents), resulting in a projected national workforce adequacy of 83.4 percent by 2038 and a shortfall of about 27,940 surgeons. Critical shortages are projected in vascular surgery, thoracic surgery, ophthalmology, and plastic surgery (workforce adequacy, 65.8, 73.1, 71.8, and 74.1 percent, respectively). In urology, orthopedics, otolaryngology, and neurosurgery, moderate shortages are projected (84.4, 87.9, 87.5, and 88.7 percent, respectively), while general and colorectal surgery are projected to remain near equilibrium (91.3 and 98.3 percent, respectively).

“When you put all 10 specialties together, you can see supply is projected to fall while demand keeps rising, and that the gaps are worse in rural areas,” Duraes said in a statement. “The fixes have to be targeted by specialty and by geography, not incremental.”

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