AHA: Valvular Heart Disease Deaths Rising Among Older Adults

FRIDAY, Nov. 6, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Valvular heart disease (VHD) death rates increased from 2018 to 2023 and are predicted to remain higher than prepandemic levels through 2040, according to a study presented at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions 2026, held from Nov. 6 to 9 in Chicago.

Hritvik Jain, M.D., from Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh, and colleagues examined trends in VHD among older adults. The analysis included age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) using data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER database (1999 to 2023) for adults aged 65 years and older.

The researchers identified 1.2 million VHD-related deaths over time. The overall AAMR declined from 123.2 deaths/100,000/year in 1999 to a low point before 2018 (annual percent change [APC], −0.87), before significantly increasing from 2018 to 2023 (APC, 1.52), reaching 109.2 deaths/100,000/year in 2023. Men had higher overall AAMRs (124.7 versus 103.1 deaths/100,000/year), although both sexes showed increases after 2018. The highest morality burden was seen in non-Hispanic White individuals (122.4 deaths/100,000/year), driven predominantly by nonrheumatic aortic valve disease. Nonmetropolitan regions had higher burden than metropolitan areas (AAMR, 120.5 versus 110.1 deaths/100,000/year), and Western states had the highest regional burden. There were divergent cohort effects by age-period observed, with later birth cohorts at ages 65 to 69 years experiencing improved survival, whereas those reaching 85 years or older faced progressively higher mortality risk. Autoregressive integrated moving average forecasting estimated AAMR stabilization at 109.2 deaths/100,000/year through 2040, which remains 35 percent higher than pre­pandemic trends.

“Our study found that the decades-long decline in deaths from heart valve disease has stopped,” Jain said in a statement. “As the U.S. population continues to age, we need to focus on earlier detection, timely treatment, and equitable access to specialized valve care, particularly for the oldest adults and those living in rural communities.”

One author disclosed ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

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