Major Demographic Transition Happening in U.S. Births

TUESDAY, Feb. 3, 2026 (HealthDay News) — There is a major demographic transition in U.S. births, according to a research letter published online Jan. 30 in JAMA Network Open.

Amos Grünebaum, M.D., and Frank A. Chervenak, M.D., from Northwell Health in New Hyde Park, New York, used national birth data (more than 33 million; 2016 to 2024) to quantify changes in U.S. demographics and their implications for future maternal health planning.

The researchers found that the total number of annual live births in the United State decreased by 8.4 percent during the study period, with births to non-Hispanic White individuals decreasing from 52.6 to 49.6 percent of the total, making up less than half of births for the first time. At the same time, births to Hispanic individuals (any race) increased from 23.5 to 27.4 percent, the only major population group to increase in both absolute number and proportional share. This increase followed a robust positive trajectory (slope = 0.5 pp/y; R² = 0.87). For most other racial and ethnic groups, there was a downward trend in births (non-Hispanic Black births: 14.3 to 13.2 percent; slope = −0.2 pp/y; R² = 0.55; non-Hispanic Asian births: 6.5 to 6.3 percent; slope = −0.1 pp/y; R² = 0.45). 

“These aren’t just statistics. Our study indicates a need for a change in maternal health,” Grünebaum said in a statement. “Hispanic and Black pregnant women experience the highest rates of maternal illness and death in the United States, accounting for over 40 percent. Our health care system needs to improve its ability to provide bilingual, culturally sensitive care to prevent health disparities from getting even worse.”

Abstract/Full Text