PREVENT Equations Show Lower ASCVD Risk Than Pooled Cohort Equations

MONDAY, July 15, 2024 (HealthDay News) — The 10-year predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk estimated by the Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations is about half that estimated by the pooled cohort equations (PCEs) among adults with stage 1 hypertension, according to a study published online July 15 in Hypertension.

Paul Muntner, Ph.D., from the University of Alabama at Birmingham, and colleagues examined U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2013 to 2020 for 1,703 adults aged 30 to 79 years with stage 1 hypertension and without self-reported cardiovascular disease. Ten-year ASCVD risk was estimated by the PCEs and by the base PREVENT equations.

The researchers found that the mean 10-year ASCVD risk was 5.4 and 2.9 percent using the PCEs and PREVENT equations, respectively. The proportion with a 10-year ASCVD risk of 10 to <15 percent and ≥15 percent was 8.1 and 7.8 percent, respectively, when estimated by the PCEs, and 3.0 and 0.3 percent, respectively, when estimated by the PREVENT equations. None of the participants had a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10 percent on the PREVENT equations and <10 percent on the PCEs, while 12.5 percent had a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10 and <10 percent on the PCEs and PREVENT equations, respectively. Compared with the mean 10-year ASCVD risk on the PCEs, the mean 10-year total cardiovascular disease risk estimated by the PREVENT equations was lower.

“A high percentage of U.S. adults with stage 1 hypertension may not be recommended initiation of antihypertensive medication if a 10-year ASCVD risk is estimated by the PREVENT equations instead of the PCEs,” the authors write.

One author disclosed ties to MedExplain, a patient education company.

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