Dementia Prevalence Projected to Increase From 2020 to 2060

TUESDAY, Jan. 14, 2025 (HealthDay News) — The lifetime risk of dementia in a community-based cohort is 42 percent after age 55 years, according to a study published online Jan. 13 in Nature Medicine.

Michael Fang, Ph.D., from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, and colleagues used data from 15,043 participants in a community-based, prospective cohort study to estimate the lifetime risk for dementia (from age 55 to 95 years), with mortality treated as a competing event. To estimate the annual number of incident dementia cases from 2020 to 2060, lifetime risk estimates were applied to U.S. Census projections.

The researchers found that the lifetime risk for dementia was 42 percent after age 55 years. Substantially higher rates were seen in women, Black adults, and APOE ε4 carriers, with lifetime risks ranging from about 45 to 60 percent. From 2020 to 2060, the number of U.S. adults who will develop dementia each year was projected to increase from ~514,000 to 1 million. For Black adults, the relative growth in new dementia cases was especially pronounced.

“Policies that enhance prevention and healthy aging are urgent public health priorities for reducing the substantial and growing burden of dementia,” the authors write.

One author disclosed ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

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